MyDD :: Insider Advantage Poll: Obama Down By 4 In Georgia

Insider Advantage Poll: Obama Down By 4 In Georgia

by andrewalker08, Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 12:00:28 PM EST

Insider Advantage Georgia is out with a new poll today that suggests that the Obama campaign's investment in Georgia may be paying off.

With more than twenty paid staffers and over a million dollars in television spots in the Peach State, the Democrats' presumptive presidential nominee should be all smiles knowing that he is only four points behind Republican John McCain; a state that McCain is supposed to be comfortably leading in.

The Insider Advantage/Majority Opinion Research poll was conducted on July 29th, has a survey size of 544 registered voters, and a margin of error of +/- 4%.

McCain - 45%
Obama - 41%
Barr - 5%
Undecided - 9%

Source: Insider Advantage Georgia, "Why Obama's Forces Think Georgia Is In Play", July 31, 2008

Tags: Georgia, Polls, Barack Obama, John McCain (all tags)

Permalink :: 25 Comments :: Post a Comment

Democrats Lead In Generic Party ID Too (2.00 / 4)

Republican, 39%
Democrat, 40%
Independent, 18%
Libertarian, 3%

by andrewalker08 on Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 12:01:42 PM EST

OMG!! (2.00 / 1)

If Democrats are doing this well in Georgia, in the DEEP SOUTH, McBush is going down in flames! :-D

We shall overcome!

by atdleft on Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 12:14:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: OMG!! (none / 0)

I'm not certain those numbers are THAT exciting--it looks about like the standard Dem performance number. The good news is that, this early, it's a sign that we might be able to shift some more of the electorate, but looking back over the last 6-8 years, that's about where I'd expect Obama to be: just where Kerry was, just above Majette in '04, just below Gore.

by Jay R on Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 12:23:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: OMG!! (none / 0)

Could you provide us with some links to this, because I recall Bush blowing away Georgia against both Gore and Kerry?

The direct use of force is such a poor solution to any problem, it is generally employed only by small children and large nations. -- David Friedman

by pollbuster on Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 01:16:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: OMG!! (2.00 / 1)

http://sos.georgia.gov/elections/electio n_results/

I'll say this about Cathy Cox: the woman set up a hell of a website when she was Secretary of State.

(For my money, though, holding a candidate to the low 40s counts as 'blowing away' the other guy)

2004
Bush: 58%
Kerry: 41.4%
Badnarik: 0.6%

2000
Bush: 55%
Gore: 43.2%
Browne: 1.4%
Buchanan: 0.4%

by Jay R on Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 01:40:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Sweet. (2.00 / 2)

Georgia?!? Whouda thunk it?

Awesome.

I'm as strong as a bull moose, and you can use me to the limit. - Teddy Roosevelt

by fogiv on Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 12:06:45 PM EST

Re: Insider Advantage Poll: Obama Down By 4 In Ge (2.00 / 1)

Here's hoping Barr's numbers hold/improve and the undecided go to Obama.

3 months to go

by notedgeways on Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 12:11:12 PM EST

and here's hoping (2.00 / 1)

they're underestimating Dem turnout.

by magster on Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 12:17:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: and here's hoping (none / 0)

That is, in fact, the only way states in the Deep South could potentially go blue this year. There are probably few true swing voters.

by CA Pol Junkie on Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 02:16:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

If the Pres. race is this close... (2.00 / 1)

Then we have a great chance at making gains in local races AND with the Senate seat up this year (Saxby Chambliss for reelection). This is such shocking news... In a good way! :-D

We shall overcome!

by atdleft on Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 12:17:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: If the Pres. race is this close... (none / 0)

There's a run-off next Tues. here to determine who will run against Chambliss in the fall, but I don't have any faith that Georgia will change hands this fall. There is no enthusiasm among Democrats in the rural parts of the state.

by georgiapeach on Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 01:25:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: If the Pres. race is this close... (none / 0)

Who do you think is going to win?

by NewOaklandDem on Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 02:29:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I think the person who receives the most... (2.00 / 1)

...Votes will win Tuesday.

Ha! Ha!

by andrewalker08 on Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 02:31:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: If the Pres. race is this close... (2.00 / 1)

I don't know, but both have enough support to give them a chance to beat Chambliss in November. I think Martin has the best chance, but Vernon Jones is good, too.

by georgiapeach on Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 02:45:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Insider Advantage Poll: Obama Down By 4 In Ge (2.00 / 1)

This is comforting in some senses, but 41% is just barely above the minimum Democratic performance for a top-of-the-ticket campaign in Georgia. That's what Kerry got in '04 (just a bit over what Senate nominee Rep. Denise Majette got that year). Gore hit 43% in 2000. Mark Taylor pulled about 38% in the '06 gubernatorial race, with Jim Martin getting about 42% for the Lt Gov race.

I'm not certain, but Roy Barnes pulling 46% in his 2002 re-election defeat might be the best Dem performance by a top-ticket candidate in Georgia in the last eight years.

Given that, it may be that Obama's support has simply hardened faster than ol' fuddy-duddy's. Anecdotally, I think Obama is still growing there (I've got right-wing fundamentalist in-laws who are planning to vote for him), but the numbers may just show that he's consolidated what there is for a Democrat in Georgia. I've said for a while that we need Barr to clean up in Cobb and Cherokee counties and get about 7% statewide to put Georgia in play. Maybe something completely unexpected will happen, but right now I think Georgia is where we make McCain spend money he ain't got, rather than the state where we get an unexpected win.

But I could be wrong...

by Jay R on Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 12:21:09 PM EST

Re: Insider Advantage Poll: Obama Down By 4 In Ge (none / 0)

I'd be willing to donate some money to Barr if I thought it would get spent in GA. There's a good chance they would spend it there. Georgia is his best state and anything they add to that will look good for him.

The only trouble with pushing Barr is that it does nothing for down-ticket Dems. Maybe I should just find some conservative sites that focus on Georgia and spend some time pushing Barr. Time to do some reverse-trolling.

"The true measure of a man is how he treats someone who can do him absolutely no good." Samuel Johnson

by MS01 Indie on Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 12:39:28 PM EST

Note that IA has always showed Georgia to be close (none / 0)

Their last two polls had McCain+1, and McCain+2. Now its McCain+4... and to take a pessimistic view, that's starting to look like a bit of a trend.

John McCain

by MILiberal on Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 12:40:22 PM EST

Re: Note that IA has always showed Georgia to be c (none / 0)

yea seriously. hard to say that obama's investments are helping when he is spending, mccain isn't and the situation isn't improving.

by LeftistAddiction on Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 01:02:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

IA Sucks (2.00 / 1)

As much as I wish it was true, IA has a terrible reputation.

by RandyMI on Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 12:42:37 PM EST

Plus, IA is a longtime outlier in Georgia...... (none / 0)

There's no sign of a bump for Obama in this poll. IA has had the race stagnant with these types of numbers for many months. They always have McCain around 45, and Obama trailing by 1-4 points. This new 4-point margin is actually BIGGER than in recent months.

And ALL these IA polls have been outliers compared to other Georgia polls. Everyone else puts McCain up by high single-digits or low double-digits.

Matt Towery heads IA and actually is a Rethug who ran for office in Georgia himself years ago before becoming a pollster, so there's no self-interest bias in the polling. But lack of bias in the results doesn't mean Towery is any good. Towery just doesn't know what he's doing.

by DCCyclone on Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 03:26:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

If he wins GA, he wins 400 EV's. (none / 0)

Which is possible.

by Geekesque on Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 12:44:28 PM EST

I only count 399 (none / 0)

If Obama wins every state he's targeting (a tall order, to be sure).

Winning South Dakota or an electoral vote from Nebraska would get him to 400.

by Angry White Democrat on Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 01:13:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

How about the senate? (2.00 / 1)

I hope there is a chance the down ticket effect could put the senate in play in Georgia. We really owe Saxby Chambliss something for that campaign against Max Cleland in 2002.

The direct use of force is such a poor solution to any problem, it is generally employed only by small children and large nations. -- David Friedman

by pollbuster on Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 01:21:02 PM EST

Re: How about the senate? (2.00 / 1)

Damn right.

No Way. No How. No McCain.

by Denny Crane on Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 01:45:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Insider Advantage Poll: (none / 0)

Nothing's more exciting in this campaign than the prospect of Obama's registration and recruiting drives being able to flip Georgia, Virginia, the Carolinas, etc.

Not sure if he's there yet, but broadening the party to include the Deep South--what a lasting change that could be!

What is The October Protocol?

by Koan on Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 01:22:28 PM EST

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